Go with the flow.
99% of the time no black swan can be found.
1% of the time a black swan will fly by.
Don’t count on a black swan to come rescue a failed investment strategy.
Generally you don’t want income which will boost your taxes. If you collect SS early then you have to pay taxes on those $ Postpone until you are older and hopefully make less money and pay less taxes. Most people will need that extra money when they are older.
Not when they are younger and can still work.
You also need to withdraw money from IRAs and pay taxes on that. If you are collecting SS then your taxes will be even greater. Try to pull money out of IRAs age 62-70 while not collecting social security. You will probably need to quit work or your taxes will be too high ages 62-70.
After age 70 you will be stuck with SS, IRA mandatory withdrawals, pensions, investment income etc. most of which are taxable. You may need that money.
Best not to waste money on taxes or goods until you actually need it. Sheeple buy too much junk that kills them or distracts them from survival. Best not to buy much of anything, just work hard and die rich.
If you die rich then leave the money to poor heirs who actually need money and have a low tax bracket.
Social Security is known as the third rail.
If a politician touches that $ they will be electrocuted.
Rich and poor both collect social security and medicare.
Old people are a growing share of the population and they vote. Social security and medicare will be untouchable.
They have trouble even with raising the age of retirement 1 year when people are living much longer. Even minor inflation adjustment gets huge flack.
I think they should raise the retirement age to 70 but it will not happen due to political resistance.
Don’t try to figure out government finance without an Ivy League Phd. The question is what % the various obligations will pay off. Ex Post all accounts will balance.
Ex Ante nobody knows which.
No model extant has shown any forecasting ability.
Better to join and actively participate in a political party that will fight changes to social security and medicare.
Socialists that want to lower the age for social security and medicare can bankrupt the system. Social Security Disability is putting pressure on old folks Social Security. Medicaid is putting pressure on Medicare.
Wars can put pressure on the system.
Home loan programs put pressure on the system.
Student loans and grants put pressure on the system.
Any big government spending program can put pressure on the system.
Any increase in taxes will reduce pressure on the system.
Rich 1% do not want to pay more taxes so fight increases in taxes that they cannot carve out exemptions for themselves.
Best to cut all government spending except for social security and medicare for persons over the age of 70.
It is hard to find a party that wants to cut spending and increase taxes. Need to get involved and force politicians to increase taxes and cut spending. If you don’t do it probably nobody will do it.
So the best forecast is little change from what is happening today.
Go with the flow and count on social security and read the book on how to maximize your benefit.
On Jul 6, 2017, at 12:43 PM, Bob wrote:
I think I’d agree with Ron, but I’ve been tardy signing on, maybe later this year if I can get caught up (Govt “compliance” overload never diminishes). BB
Worked in a Social Security office for several years. Best to take your money ASAP. None of these models take into consideration “Black Swan” events. Actually not so Black Swan. Kotikoff himself has stated the federal unfunded obligations are about $212. Trillion (212,000 Billion). The Feds will either have to print money like crazy and devalue the dollar to zero or default. Default could take the form of extending existing eligibility dates as Government bond maturation dates were extended in the 1930s. Bird in the hand v bird in the bush.
On 4 July 2017 at 08:29, joe wrote:
Usually you are better off by waiting until age 70 to collect social security $ I recommend the Kotlikoff book to check any strategy before age 70.
Obama wants you to apply for benefits ASAP to reduce your check to save the government money.
Sooner so you can buy more sugar, flour, alcohol, tobacco, fossil fuels so you will die sooner and save the government even more money.
Sooner gives you more money to spend on opiates so you will overdose and die sooner.
Better yet, just buy a gun and shoot yourself dead so the government can save money sooner.
Defeat the Obamacare agenda – stay alive and healthy!
Eat properly, diet, and exercise.
The longer you can stay alive the more $ you can collect from social security. The longer you stay healthy the less $ you waste on illness. Hawaii is healthier and lives longer.
Move to the best and go with the flow, do as the Hawaiians do.
The more I read the more it appears that diseases are preventable. Reading a few books a year is enough.
Read slow so you understand then re-read several times.
Read on paper in sunlight so you don’t get polluted by dirty electricity or destructive indoor lighting. $100 per year on books is too much.
Can read free at your local library usually.
Take 1 class a semester in college until you get an MD.
Those books may cost more than $100 but if you are not healthy your brain will not be able to do the work. Start cheap with
and asian cooking classes in Hawaii
or get a job in a restaurant in Hawaii.
Then take college science classes to prepare for medical school.
Most USA Asian food is dumbed down for junk food eaters.
Have to learn the correct way in Asian culture.
Also much of that is bad too so learn the healthy Asian eating. Must have proper training in herbs, spices, herbal medicines, etc.
On Jul 4, 2017, at 9:16 AM, J. C. JOHN wrote:
Tricky business…. you must know when you’re going to kick the bucket to be precise.
In order to determine the best time to claim Social Security, you’ll need a specialized calculator.
Why? Because when you take Social Security will lock in place your lifetime benefit.
Generally, the earlier you take it, the lower the monthly payment. Social Security will pay you a premium if you wait until 70.
But not everyone can wait — most take it early — so there’s some trade-offs. The following free calculators will help you decide.
AARP. A simple and accessible online calculator allows you to personalize your strategy, see benefits and maximize them.
Financial Engines. Recently offered by the online money manager, the program will prepare a “personalized Social Security plan in five minutes.” It would work even better if you’re already in a Financial Engines 401(k).
Social Security Administration. While the government offers a suite of calculators, they are mostly starting points to estimate retirement, disability and spousal benefits. Recommended by Forbes
Social Security Maximizer. Offered by Omyen Corp., the product allows you to explore a number of scenarios.
Social Security 360 Analyzer. Designed to prepare client-ready reports, this tool from Nationwide Financial is available to Nationwide advisors and those “registered to use the sales and service center.”
SSAnalyze! Offered by Bedrock Capital Management, this one-page tool allows you to plug in cost-of-living, discount rates, life expectancy and spousal information.
T. Rowe Price. This basic tool allows you to make assumptions about life expectancy and projected monthly benefits.