Yes – batteries are heavy and inefficient.
Stated another way you can get a lot of range and performance from a few gallons of diesel in a light vehicle 3 cylinder engine.
An equivalent electric vehicle would be much more expensive, heavier and take longer to refill. I won’t believe in electric until they produce much cheaper vehicles.
Of course around here people like expensive large vehicles and can plug in at home to avoid trips to filling station. Electric will have to get the costs down to get to a mass market.
So far a electric big government boondoggle that subsidizes inefficient technology.
Electric cannot use fat slobs to make the vehicles as in the attached article on injuries.
Electricity is free around here at various shopping center and other plugin stations, right now!
Electricity is cheaper for cars because they charge up at night when electricity is cheaper off-peak.
Electricity is another form of fossil fuels, mostly, but much easier to deliver thru little wires instead of hauling around in trucks that is very inefficient and dangerous.
Good hobby project: convert a pickup with dead engine; use the big bed – fill with used batteries cheap – then get free electric from free charging stations. Lifetime free transportation.
The key to transportation is to reduce distances between work, home, play, medical, shopping, etc.
Airborne can help – dock dirigible to Empire State Building as was the original plan, escape to Australia if SHTF.
Get rid of roads, convert to horse trails can traverse the continent without any fossil fuels or electricity.
Excessive electricity and fossil fuels in general are a leading cause of health problems.
Use human power exercise, natural sunlight, fresh air, natural farming methods, hunting and gathering.
Never forecast anything – especially the future.
On May 19, 2017, at 10:33 AM, Alan wrote:
I think that it is becoming more energy intensive to get a barrel of oil out of the ground.
However current battery technology contains about 1% of the energy density of a gallon of gasoline.
They have been trying to improve battery technology for decades with very little progress.
For the scenario presented below to happen, battery technology will have to improve by a factor of ten or twenty. I am not confident that that is possible from a theoretical standpoint.
I have been hoping this would happen for years to make battery-powered flight possible. So far there is not much progress.
I want to know where all the electricity will come from to recharge and manufacture all the batteries. Also to manufacture all the cars, trucks, airplanes, road maintenance vehicles, etc, etc.
Currently it’s mainly coal, nuclear, and natural gas. The others are a combined small fraction.
On May 19, 2017, at 7:04 AM, joe wrote:
Sell all gasoline powered vehicles ASAP
(except for maybe 1 that you need)
or convert your vehicles to electric motors
(my high school classmate did that in the 1970s)
Do not choose a career in oil.
I agree the trend.
I said similar 20 years ago due to efficiency and simplicity of electric motors. but suddenly may be happening much faster than I thought and may happen. Key is cost of the vehicles, especially batteries.
It will not work if electric cars cost more, electricity costs more, or total cost of ownership of electric is much more.
Should not need financial subsidies from government or that is proof of a bad idea.
The bigger problem is getting people to drive less and walk more to grow their brains and reduce disease. If we just make more and more big fat idiots what is the point? Then remove roads and use air transport more that needs even less roads. Dirigibles, balloons, planes, gliders, etc.
Then move people to where they belong instead of transporting them all over places where they do not belong. Dysfunctional city planning.
All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ‘death spiral’ for big oil and big autos, says study that’s shocking the industries
No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.
This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.
Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.
Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles”. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.
It is a twin “death spiral” for big oil and big autos, with ugly implications for some big companies on the London Stock Exchange unless they adapt in time.
The long-term price of crude will fall to US$25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.